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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-07-28T00:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-07-28T00:12Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47836/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption from Active Region 14494 (centered near S04W16) starting around 2026-07-27T23:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131/171/193/304, GOES SUVI 131/171/195/294/304, and STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-31T10:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/47839/1
Model Inputs:
2026-07-28T00:12:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=24.0, Lat.=2.0, Speed=363.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2026-07-28T09:14Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-07-31T10:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-29T08:28Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-30T09:00Z
Juice with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-01T13:00Z
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-01T12:00Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-07-31T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260728_091400_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 79.85 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M SWAO) on 2026-07-28T02:09Z

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